EKONOMETRIK USULLARI YORDAMID SAMARQAND VILOYATIDA ISH HAQI DARAJASINING PROGNOZINI SHAKLLANTIRISH
Keywords:
ish haqi, prognozlash, vaqtli qatorlar tahlili, regressiya modeli, mavsumiy dekompozitsiya, mehnat bozori, Samarqand viloyati, trend tahlili, statistik prognoz.Abstract
Maqolada Samarqand viloyatida ish haqi darajasining dinamikasi va uning prognozi ekonometrik modellashtirish yordamida tahlili amalga oshirildi. Ushbu tadqiqotda choraklik statistik ma‘lumotlar asosida vaqtli qatorlar tahlili va mavsumiy dekompozitsiya usullaridan foydalanib, ish haqi o'zgarishining trend komponenti, mavsumiy tebranishlar va tasodifiy omillarni hisobga olindi. Olib borilgan tadqiqotning natijasida esa Samarqand viloyati mehnat bozorida ish haqining keyingi ikki yilda o‘suvchi tendensiyaga ekanligi aniqlandi. Ishlab chiqilgan prognoz modeli uchun ishlatilgan statistik ma’lumotlar O‘zbekiston Respublikasi Statistika boshqarmasining rasmiy veb saytida taqdim etilga ma’lumotlar asosida tuzilgan va shu jihatdan ishonchli bo‘lib, viloyat iqtisodiy siyosatini rejalashtirish, byudjetni shakllantirish hamda ijtimoiy dasturlarni amalga oshirishda qo‘llanilishi mumkin.
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